Rational Analysis of Exploratory Choice

This chapter extends Anderson’s (1990) rational analysis of problem solving to a class of exploratory search situations that involve selecting one of a number of possible options, where little is known about the options before exploration begins. We formulate the situation as one of single-move, multi-stage search, where the probabilities of success of the different options are initially unknown, but where a range of assessment methods is available to provide information about each option. The assessment methods differ in their costs and in the quality of the information they deliver. The analysis defines an optimal strategy, which is applied to an experimentally studied task where a subject has to use an unfamiliar computer package. Simulation of the optimal strategy shows that it exhibits a number of features characteristic of the empirical data, such as repeated scanning of the menus, progressive focussing on a subset of the options, and iterative deepening of attention.